{"id":3697,"date":"2026-11-04T11:51:24","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T11:51:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alkhat.media\/%d9%85%d8%a3%d8%b2%d9%82-%d8%a5%d8%b3%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%a6%d9%8a%d9%84-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%86%d8%af%d8%a8\/"},"modified":"2026-11-07T14:43:50","modified_gmt":"2026-11-07T14:43:50","slug":"houthi-control-of-bab-al-mandab","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alkhat.media\/en\/houthi-control-of-bab-al-mandab\/","title":{"rendered":"Israel’s Predicament in the Bab al-Mandab Strait"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

In early September 2026, the Houthis (Ansar Allah) consolidated their control over the strategic island of Mayyun and a stretch of Yemen’s western coastline extending towards the Gulf of Aden. This was more than a shift in local territorial control. It altered the balance of deterrence in the region, struck at the foundations of Israel’s<\/a> national security doctrine, and challenged the US-led security order and its regional allies.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Repurposing Military Infrastructure<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Houthis’ advances brought extensive military infrastructure under their control, including five military camps, two airports, and facilities across four major Red Sea islands: Zuqar, Greater Hanish, Lesser Hanish, and Mayyun. They also secured a 170-kilometre stretch of coastline, backed by 14 newly captured districts. Their forces took up positions in the surrounding highlands, giving them a geographical advantage and the ability to oversee and target maritime traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and its supply routes [1<\/a>].<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The significance of this development lies partly in the repurposing of military infrastructure. Fortifications and bases built by regional actors, particularly the UAE, to serve a security framework aligned with US and Israeli interests in the Red Sea have now become forward positions from which that framework can be challenged. These positions offer more than conventional radar surveillance. They allow direct visual and electronic monitoring of a passageway just 18 kilometres wide and provide a vantage point for asymmetric warfare, including the use of unmanned boats and short-range guided missiles. Shipping bound for Israel is consequently exposed to sustained surveillance and the threat of attack.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Israeli Concerns: Bab al-Mandab Gives the Houthis Considerable Leverage<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Israel’s military and security establishment views the developments as a threat extending well beyond Yemen, with implications for global trade routes and Israel’s strategic position. Elisha Ben Kimon, military correspondent for Yedioth Ahronoth, argues that control of Bab al-Mandab gives the Houthis considerable latitude in selecting targets and, in turn, greater leverage over international shipping routes [2<\/a>].<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Military analyst Amir Bohbot points to Israeli security assessments that expect the Houthis to turn their attention back to escalating the confrontation with Israel once the other fronts have stabilised. Such a scenario would open a prolonged war of attrition. Researcher Anbal Nissim Lofton makes a similar argument, noting that control of Bab al-Mandab gives the Houthis the means to impose a de facto naval blockade. A formal declaration would not be necessary. The persistent threat of attack alone could drive international shipping companies to avoid the passage altogether for fear of being targeted [3<\/a>].<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Israel relies on Asian markets for 33 per cent of its merchandise imports, which pass through the Red Sea. According to Hebrew-language economic reports, the threat has forced ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, raising shipping and insurance costs and extending voyage times. The Port of Eilat, meanwhile, has been almost entirely paralysed since the start of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. The disruption illustrates how control of a strategic maritime passage can become a sustained instrument of economic attrition against the Israeli settler-colonial project.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The ‘Unity of Fronts’: From Bab al-Mandab to the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

An analysis of the region as an integrated whole cannot separate developments at Bab al-Mandab from movements across the Horn of Africa. Ansar Allah leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi had previously warned against Israeli attempts to establish an intelligence and logistical foothold in the breakaway region of Somaliland. The Houthis’ current positions around Bab al-Mandab therefore constrain Israel’s ability to use this African hinterland as a secure rear base, while leaving its movements more exposed.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Israel and its Western allies now face pressure along an arc stretching from the Strait of Hormuz in the east to Bab al-Mandab in the west. The connection between the two fronts presents a structural challenge to Western and Israeli naval forces, requiring them to spread their military resources across vast distances and weakening their ability to concentrate force.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Israel Exposed by US Reluctance<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Behind closed doors, some Israeli officials have sharply criticised what they see as the erosion of regional deterrence. They question why Saudi Arabia, the Yemeni government aligned with it, and other regional actors have failed to act more decisively to halt the Houthis’ advance. In their assessment, the Houthis have emerged in a stronger position while encountering relatively little resistance. The developments have also exposed serious shortcomings in the readiness and capabilities of the forces expected to confront the group, according to Israeli officials.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Assessments cited by Yedioth Ahronoth [4<\/a>] point to the weakening of the Houthis’ adversaries, set against the group’s determination to deploy its military capabilities. Israel’s defence establishment is particularly concerned that the Houthis could use their control of Bab al-Mandab to help build a more cohesive and powerful regional alliance under Iranian leadership.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Writing in Israel Hayom on 13 September 2026, military affairs analyst Yoav Limor described the latest developments in Yemen as bad news for Israel [5<\/a>]. The concern, he argued, is not limited to Houthi control of the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, the disruption of international maritime trade, or the strengthening of Iran’s regional position. The central problem is Washington’s posture: the United States is avoiding confrontation and effectively leaving its allies to fend for themselves.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Limor argued that Israel was paying the price for disrupted maritime trade and the growing military strength of its adversaries despite not having intervened directly in the fighting at the time. He also maintained that Israel’s killing of several Houthi leaders the previous year had not prevented it from misreading the balance of power in Yemen. He called on Israel to prepare for another round of confrontation, whether by initiating it or responding to a Houthi attack.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Writing in Haaretz, Tzvi Barel argued that the Trump administration treats the security of Bab al-Mandab as a local problem for regional actors to resolve. This stands in contrast to Washington’s direct involvement in the confrontation with Iran, which has become entangled with the US midterm elections [6<\/a>]. Barel argues that Trump’s distinction between the Gulf and Red Sea fronts complements Iran’s strategy of exerting pressure on global trade routes from both directions. He also sees the relationship between Tehran and the Houthis as extending beyond that of patron and proxy: the Houthis have become participants in shaping the regional balance of power.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Israel’s Red Sea Dilemma<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Israel’s current predicament has deep historical roots. On 19 March 1973, the American magazine Time reported that Israel had occupied several islands, foremost among them Yemen’s Zuqar Island, where it established radar stations to monitor the southern entrance to the Red Sea ahead of the October War.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Israel subsequently secured temporary gains through successive normalisation agreements, eventually joining the UAE in a shared security architecture that included intelligence activities on the islands of Socotra and Mayyun. But the rise of Houthi military power, and the group’s growing capabilities in coordination with the Axis of Resistance, has reversed much of that progress.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bab al-Mandab, off Yemen’s western coast, carries approximately seven per cent of global trade and one-third of Israel’s foreign trade. It has become more than a maritime passage: it is now a forward position from which Israeli hegemony can be challenged. Decades of Israeli efforts to secure its interests in the Red Sea have been undermined by the emergence of Yemen’s geography as a strategic asset for the Axis of Resistance.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Erosion of the Western Security Umbrella<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

These developments also point to a wider problem for Israel: the declining credibility of US deterrence in the region. Repeated coverage in the Israeli press reflects growing doubts about the reliability of the American security umbrella. Washington’s reluctance to enter a direct, full-scale confrontation with the Houthis, limiting its role instead to intelligence support, has reinforced those doubts. This was also evident in reported US reservations about regional demands for military escalation.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

For Israel and its regional allies, the implications are serious. An architecture built around reliance on Washington to protect their interests is proving increasingly vulnerable, particularly when US priorities diverge from those of its allies.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The developments of September 2026 have placed the Red Sea at the centre of a wider regional confrontation. It is no longer simply an international shipping route secured by dominant powers. It has become a theatre in which regional actors can challenge that control and use their geographical position to impose military and economic costs. Geography is no longer merely the setting for the conflict; it is one of the means through which it is fought. The consequences are higher costs for Israel’s occupation and deeper regional and international isolation.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Sources and References<\/strong><\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

[1] Between early September and late October 2026, Ansar Allah (the Houthis) took control of 14 districts: Al-Khawkhah, Hays, Al-Mukha, Mawza, Al-Wazi’iyah, Dhubab (Bab al-Mandab), Al-Shamayatayn, Al-Ma’afer, Al-Mawaset, Jabal Habashi, Al-Silw, Sami’, Maqbanah, and Al-Maqatirah, as well as extensive areas in the districts of Al-Mudharibah and Al-Qubaytah.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

[2] Yedioth Ahronoth, report by Elisha Ben Kimon and Itamar Eichner: https:\/\/www.ynet.co.il\/news\/article\/r1drgsvymx<\/u><\/a><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

[3] Amir Bohbot, Walla, 29 September 2026: https:\/\/www.walla.co.il\/news\/military\/383955576<\/u><\/a><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

[4] Yedioth Ahronoth, same report cited in reference [2].<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

[5] Yoav Limor, Israel Hayom: https:\/\/www.israelhayom.co.il\/news\/geopolitics\/article\/21413452?heyday_src=heyday_search<\/u><\/a><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

[6] Tzvi Barel, Haaretz: https:\/\/www.haaretz.com\/middle-east-news\/2026-09-13\/ty-article\/.premium\/trump-lets-saudi-arabia-fend-for-itself-as-the-houthis-disrupt-red-sea-oil-flow\/000001a0-9b6d-de1d-a7a1-bf6d5cfd0000<\/u><\/a><\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In early September 2026, the Houthis (Ansar Allah) consolidated their control over the strategic island of Mayyun and…","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":3698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"csco_display_header_overlay":false,"csco_singular_sidebar":"","csco_page_header_type":"","csco_page_load_nextpost":"","csco_post_video_location":[],"csco_post_video_location_hash":"","csco_post_video_url":"","csco_post_video_bg_start_time":0,"csco_post_video_bg_end_time":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[39],"class_list":["post-3697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-analysis","tag-39","cs-entry","cs-video-wrap"],"yoast_head":"\nIsrael's Predicament in the Bab al-Mandab Strait - 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