{"id":3589,"date":"2026-10-18T16:35:54","date_gmt":"2026-10-18T16:35:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alkhat.media\/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%85%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%83%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%84%d9%84%d8%ae%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%ac\/"},"modified":"2026-11-07T14:03:33","modified_gmt":"2026-11-07T14:03:33","slug":"gulf-states-american-retreat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alkhat.media\/en\/gulf-states-american-retreat\/","title":{"rendered":"Gulf\u2019s Security and the Great American Retreat"},"content":{"rendered":"

The attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities, just as the kingdom was preparing to host energy and investment conferences alongside entertainment events linked to Riyadh Season, have become the latest signs of the Gulf’s deteriorating security and economic environment since late February.<\/p>\n

On the very days Saudi airports came under missile attack, US President Donald Trump said he was considering joining Saudi strikes against the Houthis.<\/p>\n

This moment encapsulates the predicament of the US-Gulf alliance after the war on Iran. The \u201cprotector\u201d is increasingly calculating the cost of protection, while the \u201cprotected\u201d clings to it for lack of an alternative. Meanwhile, oil exports, the foundation of Gulf prosperity, have become difficult, costly, and uncertain.<\/p>\n

The question of the cost of protection, and of the very nature of the security relationship between the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), has emerged within the US<\/a> Department of War itself. The Pentagon is examining its military posture in the region after the war, including whether to rebuild bases damaged by Iranian strikes and whether to relocate some forces farther west, beyond the range of Iranian missiles. Senior officials are leaning toward reducing the US presence in several Gulf states and shifting a greater share of the burden of self-defense onto regional partners.<\/p>\n

The debate is widening across American political, academic, and media circles. Some advocate closing bases within range of Iranian missiles, while others argue that US bases do not constitute a reliable defense guarantee for host countries and that withdrawing from them would be a better option for Washington.<\/p>\n

These cost calculations are reinforced by the rise of both the liberal left and the isolationist right in American politics. Despite their differences on domestic issues, both currents converge, for different reasons, in rejecting interventionism and military involvement across the world, particularly in our region. This trend could accelerate not only the transformation of Washington’s security relationship with the GCC, but also a reassessment of its supposedly \u201csacrosanct\u201d defense relationship with Israel itself. Both camps broadly oppose supporting Israel’s wars across the region.<\/p>\n

One might expect such a reassessment to prompt the protected states to reconsider their strategic bets. Yet most GCC countries remain committed to the American security umbrella, even after the war exposed its limitations.<\/p>\n

Washington repeatedly rejected Saudi requests to strike Ansar Allah (the Houthis), while Trump backed away from planned attacks. US officials also held direct contacts with the Houthi movement in Oman.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, Saudi and Gulf frustration with their American partner has not translated into a change in their expectations of the security and defense relationship. Arms deals remain in place, and Saudi Arabia continues to seek a defense treaty modeled on NATO, subject to ratification by the US Senate.<\/p>\n

American military power remains indispensable in Saudi calculations, even though the relationship neither protects the kingdom from attacks nor guarantees that Washington will act according to its priorities. This continued reliance stems largely from the failure of proposed alternatives to demonstrate that they can fill the gap, as well as from the assumption that the United States, so long as it remains a superpower, will continue to be a security and defense partner.<\/p>\n

Talk of diversifying security partnerships has recently resurfaced across the GCC. Yet such diversification has long been underway: Gulf states have distributed their arms purchases among multiple Western allies for decades, without fundamentally altering their reliance on Washington for security.<\/p>\n

The US-Israeli war against Iran revealed the extent of this diversification on the ground. Saudi Arabia, for example, hosted a Greek Patriot battery and European air assets, while further expanding its security partnerships through the deployment of thousands of Pakistani troops.<\/p>\n

Other Gulf states also hosted forces of various nationalities, all of them allies of Washington or closely aligned with it. Yet attacks continued, undeterred by the diversification of security partnerships. The UAE offers the clearest example: American, French, and Australian forces operated alongside Israeli systems, but the country remained the most heavily targeted during the intense phase of the US-Iran conflict between February and April.<\/p>\n

The Mecca Defense Agreement signed with Pakistan and Turkey in August was intended to establish a form of contractual commitment under what was presented as the \u201cMecca Alliance.\u201d Its provisions stipulate that an attack on one member constitutes an attack on all.<\/p>\n

But both partners drew clear limits around that commitment at the first test. Ankara declared that the agreement was defensive and that it would not deploy troops on another country’s territory to launch an offensive. Its contribution, it said, would focus on air defense, electronic warfare, and technical support. Islamabad likewise confirmed that military action against the Houthis was not under consideration. Although Pakistan expressed readiness to defend Saudi territory, it shares a lengthy border with Iran and plays a mediating role between Washington and Tehran.<\/p>\n

Turkey, meanwhile, has other priorities in Syria and elsewhere. Both countries also face domestic priorities and sensitivities surrounding military intervention, which constrain their willingness to become involved in regional conflicts.<\/p>\n

The result is that none of the new partners has demonstrated a willingness to fight the GCC’s battles in Yemen or against Iran. The burden therefore remains largely on Washington, which is better positioned than any other partner to intervene, first because of its overwhelming military capabilities, and second because, unlike the others, it has a strategic interest in defending Gulf security as part of its effort to preserve global hegemony.<\/p>\n

But this incentive is increasingly constrained by two factors.<\/p>\n

The first is the tendency among defense strategists in the current administration, most prominently Elbridge Colby, Under Secretary of War for Policy, to redistribute military resources globally in pursuit of American dominance in the Western Hemisphere and to prevent China from dominating Asia and the Indo-Pacific. This entails reducing the US military footprint in the Arab region.<\/p>\n

The second is the exposure of Washington’s limits in deterring attacks and securing the GCC, alongside its declining ability to shoulder that burden. These limitations are becoming particularly evident in the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Washington has sought to secure oil transit through Hormuz by escorting tankers and providing aerial surveillance and protection. Yet attacks on vessels reached their highest weekly level since the war began in early October 2026, despite the American presence. Crude oil shipments through the strait declined, oil prices rose, and attacks extended into the Gulf of Oman, where alternative routes bypassing Hormuz are located.<\/p>\n

Despite efforts to portray operations circumventing Iranian control of the strait as successful, the solutions currently in place are financially unsustainable.<\/p>\n

Securing oil transit through Hormuz in the manner advertised by American media requires substantial military resources and expenditure, with no guaranteed results. This is likely to reinforce the very cost calculations now underway in Washington.<\/p>\n

The problem is not confined to Hormuz. Control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea has effectively fallen to Houthi forces, which had previously prevented Saudi tankers from passing through it. The Gulf thus faces two threatened maritime corridors: one that the American security umbrella has failed to secure despite costly efforts, and another in which Washington has so far declined to engage in battle.<\/p>\n

Here, security and economics converge. Gulf states have sought to offset some of their losses by increasing shipments through ports on the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea. This leaves their oil exports dependent on narrow, vulnerable outlets, at costs that are difficult to predict. Nor is the problem limited to attacks on transportation, which cannot be resolved simply by discussing alternative routes around Hormuz. The attacks have extended to production itself, targeting refineries and oil facilities.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia, for instance, has weathered the economic impact relatively well thanks to its East-West Pipeline, which connects the Eastern Province to Yanbu. Yet even this pipeline was temporarily shut down in September following attacks on its pumping stations.<\/p>\n

The consequences are already visible across GCC economies. The International Monetary Fund expects Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain to contract by more than 10 percent this year, the UAE by around 4 percent, and Saudi Arabia by more than 3 percent, assuming the strait begins reopening in March 2027.<\/p>\n

The damage extends beyond oil. Attacks have hit aviation and tourism, sectors central to Gulf economic diversification strategies.<\/p>\n

These calculations become even more consequential given the absence of a decisive outcome commensurate with the costs. The war has not fully achieved its declared objectives. Even American assessments closest to Trump’s claims of major victories against Tehran acknowledge that US forces have weakened Iran’s core military capabilities without achieving their most important goals.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, estimates suggest that US Patriot interceptor stockpiles have fallen by roughly two-thirds, with replenishment expected to take three years or more. The cost of the war had exceeded $37 billion by September, excluding the cost of rebuilding damaged bases. Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the war was not worth fighting.<\/p>\n

All these developments converge on a single conclusion: the American security guarantee for the Gulf has become a matter of cost-benefit calculations in Washington. US military power remains central to Gulf defense, and no ready alternative exists. Yet the structure and limits of the American security umbrella, as well as Washington’s willingness to fight other countries’ wars, are changing.<\/p>\n

Gulf states built their standing on the image of secure and prosperous havens amid a turbulent region: reliable energy exporters and destinations for capital, tourism, and business. When oil flows become uncertain or contested, that image turns into a wager dependent on high prices and limited, vulnerable alternative routes. The security and economic equations change together.<\/p>\n

The situation therefore demands a fundamental reassessment of GCC security, economic strategies, and relations with the regional neighborhood, based on new calculations that no longer take a declining American security guarantee as their point of departure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities, just as the kingdom was preparing to host energy and…","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":3590,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"csco_display_header_overlay":false,"csco_singular_sidebar":"","csco_page_header_type":"","csco_page_load_nextpost":"","csco_post_video_location":[],"csco_post_video_location_hash":"","csco_post_video_url":"","csco_post_video_bg_start_time":0,"csco_post_video_bg_end_time":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-analysis","cs-entry","cs-video-wrap"],"yoast_head":"\nGulf\u2019s Security and the Great American Retreat - 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